Agriculture: the way forward?

The single most pressing challenge facing Africa's governments is to harness the continent's increasing wealth and use it to improve people's lives"- Grain Fish Money Africa Progress Panel Report

Greenland. That is what you see as your flight descends into any African country. That Africa suffers from food insecurity and unemployment despite land available for tilling is a paradox. By all accounts Africa is a blessed region- land, resources and people; yet the continent spends 35 billion dollars on food importation and is ravaged by poverty and unemployment.In a continent where unemployment ranges from 3.4% to 40% , the priority of any government should be to reduce unemployment with tools and resources immediately available.

Presently, Africa has about 120 million household farmers who produce 85% of food consumed across the continent- meeting the need for food production and sustenance compared to pockets of Folawiyo and Zartech-type farmers who we need for food exports

Africa is towing the  industrialization path but is forgetting Agriculture which is core for any development even if only for nutrition purposes. We forget that even developed countries have farmers who are enabled and protected by their governments.

The problem with agriculture as a viable field are diverse. These problems include low productivity( compared to the inputs and resources used,what is the harvest?), storage post harvest( $4 billion is the estimated post harvest loss due to storage inefficiencies), lack of new technologies (improved seeds and planting methods) and transportation costs. The internal problems facing agriculture are exarcabated by lack of finance and access to land.

 Low productivity is caused by low irrigation,  dependence on rainfall and low fertilizer use which reduces soil health. For instance, fertilizers across the continent typically cost three times than that for farmers in Brazil and India.

For governments that want to tackle their unemployment challenges, agriculture provides the means of doing so. Youths should can be incentivized to shift towards agriculture and agro-processing.

How?

• Creating access to land: Land is a vital part of African life and available. In  a country like Nigeria thanks to the land tenure act, all lands belong to the government. State and local governments seeking to develop their states can make land available to potentil farmers low-cost. Areas in a state or local government can be  designated  as farming areas. If this is done especially in urban areas where population density is high and the struggle for land is difficult people should be encouraged to farm be it in livestock or crop produce holding other factors constant.

• Access to finance: lack of affordable credit (the going rate in Nigeria for loans start from 20%), inability to save due to the subsistent nature of farming and lack of insurance inhibit farmers from expanding/improving their productivity by re-investing in farming. Also, farmers ergo members of the informal  economy are excluded from financial services because financial institutions do not invest in rural areas and farmers (both rural and potential urban) lack the requirements (a collateral) for credit. In addition, because agriculture is perceived as high risk, Financial Institutions do not invest in them because returns are not guaranteed. Also farmers/ youths with bright ideas are unable to translate these ideas into bankable projects. To address these challenges, Kenya has M-Pesa ( a mobile banking platform for the "poor") which has helped farmers. Nigeria's government in 2011 also created an agency Nigerian Incentive-Based Risk Sharing in Agricultural Lending whose purpose is to provide credit guarantees of unto 70% to banks that loan to farmers. However, the success of this agency is yet to be seen as there is little or no awareness of it's existence. On paper, an organization like NISRAL should provide comfort for banks to loan to farmers and should be encouraged. This should go hand in hand with reaching out to the farmers so that they make use of this opportunity. Related to this is that governments should reduce the incentive  for FIs to invest in bonds etc and fund the real sector. For instance, the yield on Nigeria's government bonds is at least 12%. A financial institution that loans at 25% and yields 12% has no incentive to reduce its interest rate. Financial institutions can also collaborate with farming associations in order to reach individual farmers or give credit to the farming association.

• Upskilling farmers: farmers lack access to the latest technologies and seeds. The effects of this is that they tend to overuse their land which leads to low productivity and low yields. According to a senior IFC official crop per resource use in Africa is low compared to other continent. Educating farmers can address this. In Malawi, a lead farmer project where a farmer that has been properly trained in the right agricultural techniques teaches/ shows this process to other farmers thus imbibing new principles and sharing best practices. Models like this can be introduced to other regions/ countries

• Enabling agribusiness: inefficiencies post harvest result in high prices of crops that do not even get to the primary producer. These inefficiencies include lack of storage, waste and infrastructure. For instance in Nigeria about 80% of her roads are unpaved and unsafe. Coupled with the security challenges the nation faces, middlemen have to contend with bad roads, tipping policemen etc. On the issue of wast, the "useful" part of say a cow is taken and others discarded. As previously mentioned, every part of a cow is useful even it's blood. Also, cassava is being processed the same way it has been processed for centuries. The government can come in by teaching youth the how and whats of agro-processing. It is great to see Nigerian brands of pancake flour, yam flour, cassava etc. It would be more successful if more people engage in afro-processing.

Agriculture provides a veritable means of addressing the continents youth unemployment food insecurity challenges. African governments have to sort out the infrasture issue because without it there will be no connection between the primary producers and final consumers.

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From Al-Shabaab to Boko Haram

He will win who knows how to handle both superior and

Inferior forces.- Sun Tzu the Art of War

The President of Gabon, Ali Bongo Ondimba, commenting on the absence of inter-regional trade remarked that "it won’t be until we have sufficient security against internal, regional and continental threats that we can be sure of real development. After securing security, we can be confident that our achievements will be safeguarded, and also have the capacity to construct infrastructure such as regional railways, airports and highways that will facilitate trade and help us to integrate faster".

He's right. Across the continent, there are rising issues of insecurity from local conflicts in South Sudan and Central African Republic to attacks in Nigeria and Kenya. These attacks blight the "Africa rising" spirit across the continent.

Unfortunately, African governments are taken by surprise at these attacks and rather than tackle the issue, it is politicized. The attacks on Nigeria and Kenya by groups that are probably connected-considering the similarity of their modus operandi- show a lack of regional cooperation.  As president Kagame noted it is sad that African leaders have to be summoned by former colonial rulers to discuss their security challenges (President Hollande convened a meeting on the 17th of May and the United Kingdom on the 12th of June). 

The emergence of both Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram show that underneath the "jihadist" agenda lies grievance towards authority institutions for past brutality and the desire for revenge. These are consequences of mis-governance and divisive leadership. Said Barre ruled Somalia for 22 years and the repressive leadership he provided caused the failed state Somalia has become and birthed the organization that transformed into Al-Shabaab. Also, the divide and rule strategy of Nigeria's founding fathers, nurtured by military rulers embedded the ethnicity and mistrust that plagues Nigeria today and makes every clan feel cheated such they vote for sectarian interests that are personally injurious to them.

As UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon, noted "terrorism thrives when conflicts continue to simmer, or where rights are systematically violated, or where discrimination is institutionalized, or where there are few prospects of a secure and stable livelihood”.  African rulers need to stop encouraging ethnicity and repressiveness because there are consequences, lasting consequences that can break a society. Iraq, Somalia and Libya are recent examples. Zimbabwe may go the same route when Mugabe dies or there is a revolt.The focus on security institutions by these groups tell African military forces to rethink their strategies by relying more on intelligence than on the blunt and arbitrary use of force. 

A failure to coordinate security and social policies means there will be no enduring growth. Whatever developments occur can be wiped out by these avoidable conflicts. For instance, the economic indices for Nigeria are presently good but the North is Nigeria's food basket. The attacks by Boko Haram have disrupted farming activities and livelihoods. This has caused higher food prices and food insecurity and directly impacts the Federal government’s policy of reducing food imports. Kenya is also witnessing a downturn in her tourism industry. The September mall attack is projected to cause a loss of $160 million in revenue for the country. The increased attacks will continue to tarnish the nation's fame as a tourist hub. For instance, the US shortly before the May 17 attack issued travel advisory warning to citizens. 




What to do?

First, governments have to ignore the politics (for Nigeria, it is that BH is sponsored, for Kenya, it is that the Kenyatta government is being undermined) and address the root causes. Neither country can do it alone. They have to collaborate and identify linkages that exist between these groups. Al Shabaab’s killing of 70 students, bombing of a sports bar in Kampala in 2010 during a World Cup match, the Westgate mall attack in Nairobi in 2013, the attack on a Nairobi market on May 17, 2014, the Mpetkoni attack on June 15 and the murder of 17 African Union soldiers bear resemblance to Boko Haram's attacks of schools, military posts, social life and villages in Nigeria.  

Tied to this is the issue of governance. African leaders need to focus on creating enduring legacies rather than pit one group against another. 

Also, the menace of corruption especially in public institutions has to be addressed. From Nigeria to Kenya, it is easy to bribe border control officials. A situation where immigration officials requests for inducement breeds free flow of drugs, arms and ammunition and mercenaries. 

In addition, Africa rulers should realize that though the continent is diverse, geographical divisions across the content are similar: a developing south versus an underdeveloped North. Recognizing this should change a government’s outlook of viewing problems as "national"

Social justice and human rights have to be engrafted and become part of "government culture". One would have thought that the experiences with Niger Delta Militants would teach Nigerian Military that rules of engagement have changed. That Boko Haram transformed into what it has become showed that Nigerian government learnt nothing from that experience. 

 Finally, governments have to creatively address underemployment and unemployment. Youths are incentivized to join terrorist groups because they are idle, disillusioned and are offered incentives. That a youth can set a village ablaze for N2, 000 shows the deep levels of unemployment and poverty that exist in the country.

According to World Economic Forum research, there are 44.7 million unemployed youths in Sub Saharan Africa and 147 million underemployed youths. That is the population of South Africa, Tanzania, Kenya, Senegal, Zimbabwe, Tunisia, Sierra-Leone and Togo combined. Graduates- fully and half baked- are being daily added to this number. Left unchecked, the effect is a shoe waiting to drop. A stitch in time saves nine

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Counting the costs of government's inefficiencies: the enervation of the military

Nigeria's Military's  inability to successfully combat and defeat Niger- Delta militants and recently  Boko Haram insurgents belies its success as  ECOMOG's lead peace-keeping force. For a corp that is regarded as the pride of Africa, the army's routing by insurgents illustrates the that the military is unable to perform its primary duty of guarding the nation.I agree with president Jonathan that the army is ill-equipped and that this is due  the neglect of the military by successive  governments. 
The foundation of Nigeria's military pre and post independence  is deeply flawed and rather than  re-build a military that can defend and protect the  nation's territorial integrity, Nigerian governments since 1966  further weakened  her defence corp by delibrate actions and inactions. 
The responses to attacks in the North  reveals that the army is thinly spread, soldiers are poorly trained and underfunded and defence allocations- which forms a huge part of national  budgets (since 2012 over 1.5 trillion was allocated to the military) has been mismanaged. 
A look at Boko Haram's recent attacks show a concentration at Bama,Damboa, Konduga,Gwozo and Chibok areas of Borno State.  Obviously, these areas should be designated hot spots yet the insurgents have successfully attacked these places  over and over again. Even when people on the ground know an attack is imminent, the military is unable to respond and prevent the attack. 
For instance, in the Gamboru attack of the 5th of May, it was reported that the attack occurred 1 hour after the military men stationed at the border left on a tip off about  the location of the missing girls. The attack lasted 12 hours and there was no military response. The revelations arising from the Chibok abduction and previous abductions of females lend credence to military complicity in the attacks. For instance, in the  taped video shared by the insurgents, the leader speaks against a  background of an Armoured Personal Carrier (APC) painted in military colours- first, can this vehicle not be traced? Second, there should be paper trail on the vehicle. This begs the question why there would be military collaborators and the only reasonable suggestion is pecuniary motives. If members of the defence corp willingly aid insurgents, then this has to be the Military's nadir. 
The military has faced challenges since inception. Jim Peter notes that  "the formative years of the army was flawed starting with the British". The military lacked "manpower, mobility, fire and necessary logistical support" as far the the 1950s. 
By 1960, in order to address the gap of  military size relative to Nigeria's population and lack of professional experience, the colonialists embarked on a recruitment drive and employed a quota system that gave the North an advantage.  The colonialists also trained a set of army officers (the majors that conducted the coup, the class of Gowon, Obasanjo, Muritala Mohammed) at the renown Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst and The Mons Officer Cadet School. These soldiers returned and were rated above their superiors that did not enjoy  these  trainings. Thus, a rift was created between along ethnicity and cadre levels. The situation was aggravated by the promotions the newly minted officers  enjoyed  with no commensurate professional experience. 
In 1966, the military transitioned from partial involvement in Nigerian politics (The army was involved in the 1964 Tiv crisis, Federal Workers strike and the 1965 election crises in the Western Region) to fully running the show.  Apart from Nigeria's democracy, the other major casuality of the politicization of the military was the military itself.
Rather than develop the professional competence of the military, successive military governments decapacitated the military to prevent counter coups. The transition to democracy in 1999 did little to positively reshape  the military as President Obasanjo undertook reforms that decentralized the powers of the Military. In 2006, a National Defence Policy was enacted but it was neither comprehensive nor implemented. 
What has been the effect of the under-development and politicization of the army? First, the nation has no military strategy. Second, the army is ill-equipped to protect the territorial integrity of Nigeria. It can bark but not bite. Sadly this challenge was recognized as recently as 2006 yet nothing was done to address and close this gap.  Late Patrick Azazi ( Former Chief of Army Staff and National Security Adviser) noted that "the key to containing the threats in this dynamic multi-dimensional battlesapce is a total domain awareness... This would entail creating an effective and efficient national C4ISR (command, control, communication, computer, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) capabilities to monitor all land, sea and air spaces within the confines of Nigeria's territorial land, air and sea areas.. the defence sector lacks an integrated network that is effect based and ICT driven hence it will be difficult for it to gather information, process it into actionable intelligence and disseminate it in a timely manner". 
Unfortunately, because the nation's defence is weakened, external help has come from the US, UK and Israel- the effects of opening up to foreign military aid remains unseen. 
There is still hope if the government sits up and begins the herculean task of cleaning out and sorting out rather than playing the "opposition" and ethnicity card.
He who sows wind would reap whirlwind. It is 2014 and the nation is reaping the whirlwind of the 1960s- 1990s.  It is time to reverse the tide.

Deuces 

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Ready.Set.Go

The stage is set for an increase in fuel prices. Sadly,the government is acting out the same script it has always done but with a tweak- fuel unofficially sells for N110 in most filling stations across the country, yet  Nigerians buy with token protests.  If I were in government rather than announce a hike, I will retain the status quo because an official increase would lead to nation-wide strikes. The politics of fuel  subsidy and punishing Nigerians for the government's incompetence and enrichment of a few without appropriate palliative measures to cushion to removal of subsidy leads us back to where we were in January 2012.

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1984

In George Orwell's 1984, we read how the government of Oceania through it's Ministry of Truth misinforms and manipulates citizens while the Ministry of love tortures and conditions those who fall out of line. Nigeria's current government appears to follow suit as a citizen almost became an "unperson" but for  vigilance of social media activists.This makes one wonder the number of people (especially non-journalists) that have disappeared by reason of security agencies before the rise of new media and those who have no social media presence.

Indeed all governments engage in public manipulation in national interest- though it's definition of national interest is  personal. However, when a government's primary function becomes misinformation and manipulation  in the face of the many challenges a nation faces, it shows that there is a blasé and puerile attitude towards decision making. To be fair to Nigeria's current government, predecessors have plied the propaganda route. The difference is that it was done with more tact and adroitness.  For instance, human right abuses under President Obasanjo's government  were and are viewed are necessary and not for the abuse that it is. President Obasanjo is perceived as a strong leader and not civilian dictator. Obasanjo's downfall was his third term bid, otherwise he did no wrong. However,  this government's attempts are so haphazard, casual and slipshod. From the unthought Oduah's assassination attempt story, Reno Omokri's failed attempt at labelling Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as Boko Haram's sponsor to SSS's (they should know better) spew on Boko Haram's attack on it's forte  and the various versions that was given (you can read them here and here), the stance that Boko Haram is a Northern problem the North should deal with, questions the government's ability to govern and if indeed the government understands its purpose is to improve the welfare of citizens. If this government understands that, our president would not make petty comments like"I could vividly remember that the Kano State governor, Kwankwaso, did not vote for me during the primary and secondary elections in 2011, he was part of those who worked against me during that period and did not celebrate with me after the victory".  If a government cannot take responsibility for Nigeria's electricity crises and blames the opposition and the opposition knows no better than to take needless swipes  at the government whilst failing to take responsibility for its part in the  sorry state state the nation is in  one wonders which way Nigeria. 

For a country whose population is expected to hit 210 million in 2020 and 273 million  in 2030 (source: United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs), where 120 million people have no access to electricity, where about 15% of her 200,000 km roads  are paved and at least 10.5 million kids are out of school with a projected illiteracy rate of  42 million  adults and 10 million youths by 2015, the government should be hard at work  addressing these issues and  planning for the next 50 years rather take to the airwaves comparing the president to MLK and Nelson Mandela egging him on in incompetency mischievously noting that "those who are for him are more than those against him". It is  reckless of government institutions and officials  to promote tribalism and beer parlour talk by mis-informing citizens. The government  also needs to get better in the way it interacts with citizens especially critics. In this age of the citizen reporter, it is  laughable that SSS- Nigeria's highest intelligence unit  would  tell barefaced lies on the whereabouts of a citizen and hold this citizen for days without. SSS's behavior shows the low level of intelligence gathering and citizen engagement of the country and the knowledge our security agents have. 

Nigeria's 1999 Constitution (Chapter 2, section 14b) states that the the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government. It is time for the presidency to ignore the cheers and jeers and focus on achieving that purpose. Actions speak louder than words. 

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The Rebasing

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It's called "facilitation"

Ask any Nigerian and we would tell you that corruption is Nigeria's biggest problem. Ask how it can be tackled and we  would  be quick to blame the system and the government and we would throw our hands up in resignation.The system responsible for mire of corruption we are sinking in is an alien that possesses us especially public servants and leaders. The system is responsible for the mysterious fires that gutted Federal ministries in the 1980s when audits approached, the flagrant looting of public funds from the 80s till date and the impunity exhibited in our society. The system is responsible for the Wabara 55 million scam, Stella Oduah, Dimeji Bankole, the Police pension fraud  and Patricia Etteh. 
Though the system dwells in high offices, it also manifests itself in the average Nigerian. How you ask? It generates income for the frustrated hardworking individual to the lazy who sees it as a means to quick easy money. 
For example, you want to obtain the new driver's license, all NIgerian drivers must have by July 2014. You can either process it yourself or use the system. To process it yourself, it would take 3-6 months to get the permit or pay the system between N16,000 ($100) to N20,000 ($116) and you would get your license in no time.  How much is the actual cost of the license? N6,375 ($37). Part of the 16,000 goes to the facilitator (the system's incarnate) and the civil servants who expedite processing the license. 
Another example is passport processing.The official cost of a passport is N7,500 and there is no timeline/ SLA on processing a passport. It could take up to 8 weeks. However with N20,000($116)-N25000($145), a passport is yours in 48 hours. In this case, the "facilitators" are immigration officials-there's nothing for the boys.  Still on immigration, are you tired of standing in queues when you arrive Nigeria to be cleared? Would you love  to exit from the plane straight to pick your bags? That can be arranged for as little as $100. In fact, some security firms would provide escort services from the plane to your home for N600, 000 ($3400)- the firm takes its share and the rest is paid to immigration officials unreceipted. 
Customs is another institution the system presents itself. Scanners have been provided to check and clear containers without unloading the container. However because offerings have to be made to the system, containers are unloaded by clearing agents for custom officials to check, 79 signatures are required to clear the goods and at the end of the day an importer has to pay demurrage and pays the clearing agent higher than the originally agreed fee. 
Yet the system is neither a spirit nor a ghost. The system lives because we enable it. We enable it because it is convenient, we can afford it and we do not care, thus the system thrives and when it does not work in our favour we gripe about the decay in our society. 
The makers of system are public servants who see the government agencies as avenues to make money and make processes needlessly cumbersome. Until the "system" is starved, it the cost of living and transactions would continue to rise. 
Unfortunately we would not fight the system because we believe in waiting our turn and hope for the imaginary day we or those we influence would have control over the system.

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The Criminalization of Survival.

KAI at work. Credit. yahoo.groups

Note: This  article was first published in  Youthspeak on the 10th of February 2014. 


Africa's development path (in terms of creating sustainable income, ability to live a decent life, general well-being, increased purchasing power parity, having access to basic social amenities) is different from that of Europe, America and Asia. This is because Africa lags behind on development metrics and creativity is required to catch up with others.

Also, Africa is able to avoid the development challenges and phases other nations went through. For instance, Countries in Africa literally jumped from no access to telecommunications to 650 million mobile telephone subscribers. Yet, in spite of available models to adapt to suit our needs, the continent has failed to translate her positive GDP rates to real effects for her citizens. 

Government inefficiencies, failure of leadership and negative effects of globalization birthed an unintended consequence that may be a solution to our development challenges. This unintended consequence is the informal economy.

World Bank reports state that this economy contributes at least 40% of Africa’s GDP. Yet governments alienate its members culturally, socially and economically.  Though there is no precise definition of the informal economy because it encapsulates many aspects, the International Labour Organization  (ILO) defines it as

“all economic activities by workers and economic units that are – in law or in practice- not covered or insufficiently covered by formal arrangements. Their activities are not included in the law, which means that they are operating outside the formal reach of the law; or they are not covered in practice, which means that although they are operating within the formal reach of the law, the law is not applied or not enforced; or the law discourages compliance because it is inappropriate, burdensome, or imposes excessive costs” 

 Therefore, street hawkers, tailors, drivers, carpenters, handymen, kiosk owners, recharge card vendors, mobile and home offices fall into this category. The informal economy exists in most African cities and Lagos, Nigeria’s melting pot has her share of vendors who survive by hawking items from recharge cards, potatoes, shoe racks, mobile phones, accessories, fruits in traffic or curb sides.

In 2003, the Lagos State government set up the KAI (Kick Against Indiscipline) Brigade. “to keep Lagos Environment Clean: by eliminating indiscriminate dumping of refuse in unauthorized places and eliminating all forms of Street trading and hawking”. This is in line with the government's Mega city goal. The Brigade carries out its duties faithfully and diligently. The fear of KAI is the beginning of wisdom for most hawkers as their goods (which may not be worth more than N15,000) are confiscated in addition to other penalties that may be levied by the State. This action by the government is overkill.

Rather than destroy the meager means of livelihood of certain residents, the government should first identify why people hawk.

Some reasons include migration to Lagos for greener pastures, business failure (especially artisans who have learnt a skill but are unable to practice) and  the cumbersome and expensive process of setting up a business. Of the 3 in Nigeria, Lagos ranks 25^th in the World Bank’s ease of doing business Rankings. Add to this overheads such as space and electricity. It would take a while for even a shrewd business owner to break even. It is no surprise that even businesses that can afford the legal process do not register their businesses.

Lagos is not the only city faced with the problem of street vending and its attendant effects such as pollution. The arrest and seize approach of KAI has not been successful. Instead, it has alienated the government from the "poor" who now view it as elitist.  Hawkers do not make enough to create sustainable income, thus even after they are caught and penalized, they return to the streets. 

To address the hawking problem, the State can adapt alternatives used in other cities such as creating mobile stalls for vendors in designated areas and stipulating hours they are allowed to operate or creating multi-shops stores around the city where hawkers are allowed to operate.

For an industry that emerged by accident and was regarded as a passing phase by scholars, the informal economy is here to stay. Governments like Lagos State should proactively harness the potentials of this sector by acknowledging it and creating conducive policies that aid its growth. This would be beneficial for both the members and the government because holding other factors constant (adequate provision of basic services) when players in the sector are able to create sustainable incomes, the government would be able to earn revenue like it does from the formal sector.

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Counting the cost of government's inefficiencies: failure to connect the dots

One flaw of  Nigeria's governments is the failure to connect the dots. Events and issues are treated as isolated incidents without recognizing patterns and preparing for the consequences for actions and inactions. That cliché a stitch in time saves nine" does not resonate with the leadership.

The indifference and actions of  the governments in the 1960s, 80s and 90s to  Niger-delta agitations bred  the culture of violence that became Niger-delta militants and opportunists. Today, the Federal budget for militants is larger than that of the country's security apparatus (Military and Police) combined. The government also suffers loss of revenue due to oil bunkering activities in that area.  

That same mistake is being repeated with Boko Haram and Fulani herdsmen who have between February to March, 2014 killed  about a 1000 people in the North East and Middle belt and destroyed livelihoods and properties.  

The evolution of Boko haram from a group that used unsophisticated weapons and motor cycles  to attack police stations to attacking people with RPGs in luxurious buses is very telling.  The blame for  this evolution lies with the government.
There are two schools of thought on the emergence of the  group- these theories are  linked because both have melded together-. The theories believe that Boko Haram is either politically or religiously motivated.

The first thesis is that Boko Haram evolved from ECOMOG a group sponsored by Ali Modu Sherriff, Ali Ndume and some other politicians who used them as thugs during the elections and dumped them after the elections. The problem with discarding people that have been violently empowered is that they become Frankstein. Cases in point include OPC, Egbesu boys and a faction of Niger-Delta militants who were used in the 2007 and 2011 elections.

The second thesis  claims the group has its roots in some youths disenchantment with the way Islam was practiced in the North and sought to establish true Islam. The group clashed with authorities in 2002 and were ruthlessly dealt with by the establishment who killed the group's first  leader, Mohammed Ali. The group regrouped and in 2009 attacked some police officers, the officers retaliated and killed the group's new leader, Mohammed Yusuf.
The forceful reaction to what was probably a misguided group of youths/ the empowering of thugs for political gain has led to a group that is now linked to Al-Qaeda, has superior weapons to the State's security agencies and is a scourge in the North East where economic and social activities have been grounded. Other hoodlums benefit from the situation by attacking in the name of boko haram. Another dot the government is failing to connect is the re-emergence of Fulani herdsmen that have been killing people in the Middle belt  since 2012. As date over 400 lives have been lost and several villages burnt. In the recent attacks in Benue, chemical weapons were reportedly used by the herdsmen. From the attacks, it obvious that the attack has more  than economic undertones for land (grazing). There are also reports that foreign fighters  help these herdsmen in the attacks.  These attacks by herdsmen did not begin in 2012. There is a history of violence between the Fulanis and the natives in the middle belt. Yet, all the government does is offer condolences
The incidents in Northern Nigeria depict a failure of military intelligence, a failure of Nigeria's diplomatic clout and influence (it is incredible that Cameroon would act nonchalantly and refuse to support Nigeria on disarming Boko Haram)
The after effects of the handling of the Niger-delta agitations offers lessons for the country. The price the government is paying for peace- state monies channeled to militants and oil theft-  should cause a rethink in the handling of similar problems but that is the not the case.

What is the cost of this?
Nigeria is grooming future militancy in the form of civilian JTF who give  soldiers intelligence
To borrow from Reuben Abati, Nigeria is also grooming "children of anger". Children who have lost parents, family and hope and would one day fight back.
Nigeria is  further entrenching food insecurity. Most of the food consumed by Nigerians are  from the North and if people cannot farm, there would be no harvest and food. In last 3 years, food prices have been on the  increase.
Related to above is because the poor have to spend more on food, they become poorer, add this to the cost of kerosene and transport and  the cycle of poverty continues.
85 schools have been closed in Borno. This means that 120,000 students are out of school because of the fear of attacks. For Nigeria North where literacy and education especially for women is  typically low ( about 20% according to World Bank 2012 reports), more numbers are been added to the current 10.5 million children out of school in Nigeria.

A stitch in time saves nine.
Deuces.

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Still on PHCN

Before  I sign out on power issues, below is an infographic on Nigeria's power reforms. 

Deuces.

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