The rat trap

At the Africa Development Bank Annual Meeting in May, a commentator asked a high level panel comprising those who should know what is being done to contain the spread of Ebola because the much touted Africa rising and growth can be wiped out by an epidemic. This commentator was dismissed and I recall another commentator in the audience retort that Ebola cannot spread or cross borders. 2 months later, the story is different. The disease has spread from Guinea (430 deaths/ 648 cases) to Sierra Leone (422 dead/1026 cases), Liberia (694/ 1378 cases) and Nigeria (6 deaths/ 17 cases) and now Senegal.  
The outlook of the region reminds one of the rat trap fable where the animals who refused to help destroy the trap set by the farmer for rat ended up being killed as food for mourners when the farmer's wife died from injuries.

The outbreak of this virus has affected businesses and commerce- especially the foreign investment Africa desires. The effects of the disease is evident and may continue for a while. Ergo, the Continent's economic outlook is diminished- at least for 2014. In Sierra leone, farming and mining activities ( the country’s new frontier and employer)  have been adversely affected and there fears that inability to farm will affect the country’s food security. Liberia has also suffered a similar fate as Sierra-leone. It appears to be worse off as the level of stigmatization is high and some victims are left to die. 
 Though the disease is yet to reach epidemic proportions in Nigeria and its effects almost insignificant, some businesses have issued travel bans to and from Nigeria. The nation’s saving grace may be the gains airlines and business make from the region hence the continued business.Yet that Nigeria was looped in this Ebola cycle illustrates the consequences of ill-preparedness. In March 2014, Nigeria’s minister of information stated that the Country has vaccines to combat Ebola  and is ebola-ready. In July (2-3), there was a WHO meeting in Ghana  for Health Ministers on how to  combat Ebola and Nigeria’s health minister was missing. 

But for the proactiveness and selflessness of Dr Adadevoh and First Consultants Clinic, Lagos may have experienced an outbreak. Even with the sub-optimal state of Nigeria’s health facilities (I have it on good authority that that medical supplies for doctors who are usually first casulties in epidemics as this  e.g covers, gloves etc are not sufficient).

For those who downplay Dr Adadevoh’s ethics and sacrifice, the spread  of the disease in Port harcourt, the unknowns- how far has it spread, who has slipped through the radar-  shows the need for personal integrity and ethics. The late Port Harcourt according to reports was aware the patient had Ebola, did not report it and supposedly took precautions. Unfortunately for him, he his late, has endangered the life of his immediate family and a state with population of about 6 million residents. The Federal government also shares the blame in the spread of this virus as they were away that 2 people under surveillance slipped away and failed to track them.

As a region, the outbreak of this Ebola strain offers lessons which include:

• The need to follow rules and systems. First Consultants on discovering the Ebola index case carried the virus informed the authorities. If only Dr. Enemuo had towed a similar path
• Greed,corruption and its sister attitudes- see-no-evil; let-it-be- are a scourge that has to be addressed because it kills. 
• There can be no growth and development without a healthy population. Though cliche health is wealth and sick population cannot be productive. The same attention that is being given Ebola should be accorded similar diseases like Malaria and Polio.

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The Federal Government has touted the transformation agenda as working in the area of employment- though statistics beg to differ-. The Minister of Finance stated that 1.2 million jobs were created  in 2013 but this only visible in government realms. The reality is that  existing unemployment levels is increasing and as Bola Tinubu mentioned it is a ticking  time bomb. Gullible job seekers are being defrauded and corruption in the Federal service  is engendered thanks to norm of allocating existing vacancies to staff members who then sell their slots to jobseekers.

I understand that there is a company located in Surulere that operates illicit recruitments and despite reports to the police, no action has been taken. Stories of job seekers who  employed as sales officers,required to give advance payments for machines that are yet to be delivered and promises of roles for certain prices. According to those who have experienced this fraud, they are those this position available for NGN 25,000, that job for NGN15,000, after they pay no jobs are given. 
For the Federal government, the NIS recruitment scam and the NGN 1000 paid by applicants is mild compared to what is the norm in other government agencies. Civil servants have become HR when recruiting as they are given slots for open positions which they sell for as high as 400,000. Here, the job is guaranteed but for the highest bidder. However, the repercussions of this method of recruitment is 1) the wrong person more than likely gets the job and that will affect performance. 2) considering that the take home pay of civil servants say NSDC is insignificant, an individual that pays 400,000 for a job will definately recoup that cost from customers- citizens

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Dangote 1: Lafarge: 0

Credit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cement

Standard Organization of Nigeria’s change of all-purpose cement grade from 32.5 to 42.5 is killing a fly with a sledgehammer. The cement war between Nigeria’s major manufacturers (LafargeWAPCO and Dangote) crystallized when the House of Representatives and SON called it in favour of Dangote. In a economic competition that is profit driven and has no benefits for consumers of cement (in terms of significant price drop) this intervention is unsavory and sends foreign investors the message that Nigeria is protectionist in a circuitous manner

Cement importers and West African Portland Cement Plc. (WAPCO, established 1959), which transitioned to Lafarge/ WAPCO after a takeover by Lafarge SA in 2001 dominated Nigeria’s cement industry. WAPCO and Cement importers set prices for cement. For a large market like Nigeria, business was lucrative for WAPCO in spite of its limited production volume (4.5 million metric tonnes annually) and high energy costs – especially as the facilities lacked gas pipelines. The importers even had higher profit margins, as the cost of importing is less than production cost. By  2012, there was a glut of cement and cement importation was banned in 2013. 

Few points to note:

·         WAPCO was profitable because of the 32.5 cement grade that it produced. Cement is produced limestone rock, chalk, shale, or clay and additives such as Pozzolana, fly ash (industrial waste) and limestone. Nigeria has limestone in industrial quantities and is the preferred additive for manufacturers.

·         There are 4 grades of cement- masonry cement which is used for plastering, 32.5 cement which was all purpose and up till May 2014 was acceptable in Nigeria for constructing commercial and residential buildings.  Most buildings such as Cocoa House, my office, my house and your house- if you live in Nigeria- were built with 32.5 cement grade. 42.5 grade is used for bridges and heavy construction while 52.5 grade is used in countries like the UK and US because of their weather. The difference in all these grades is the proportion of additives i.e. limestone used in the production. 32.5 have more additives than 42.5. Currently, both grades are produced by cement manufactures in Nigeria in different quantities with Lafarge producing more of the 32.5 grade because of its capability.

·         Dangote supposedly became a player in the cement industry due to influence by the Obasanjo administration when it pursued a policy to encourage cement manufacture rather than importation considering that Nigeria has requisite materials to produce cement. In 2000s, Dangote acquired a new production facility in Obajana with a capacity of 10 million metric tonnes. Earlier this year, another facility with similar capacity was commissioned at Ibese. Also, in 2013, production at the outdated facility at Gboko was discontinued

With Nigeria having 2 major players competing for cement market share one will think that both manufacturers would produce the 32.5 and compete for buyers. However, it will be unprofitable for Dangote cement  to produce 32.5  because its facilities will be underutilized and there will be no economies of scale.    Like eggs, the amount of energy used to boil 1 egg will boil 10 eggs so it is more efficient to boil 10 eggs. For Dangote cement, it is more profitable and efficient to produce a higher grade of cement than "cooperate" and produce the same grade of cement with its competitors. According to reports, it costs Dangote $3 to produce a 50Kg bag of cement sold at $9.

 Without the government’s regulation, it will have been a survival of the fittest contest between Dangote and LafargeWAPCO. Rather than let the markets and consumer preferences decide, spurious associations and claims were made blaming the occurrence of building collapse on grade of cement. If a building collapses, it is likely that substandard materials were used. It is unfortunate that the government was partisan in this issue and made decisions on the partisanship. Also, the government should have plainly said it is adopting a protectionist policy in Nigeria's cement industry. Countries protect certain industries and no one blames them for it. This deception connotes that Nigeria is not a fair playing ground and sends a wrong message to the investors we seek to attract. There is absolutely no need for the deception. The appearance of partisanship in this matter is unnecessary as both companies are moving on from just competing for the Nigerian market to Africa's market. Lafarge recently announced a merger of her Nigeria and South African units, whilst Dangote cement has also shown interests in markets in Uganda and other parts of Africa. In a purely economic-business interest matter, the companies will survive and still make their profits. Question is do we have government that will vigorously pursue the interests of her people as it protects the interests of business allies?

update 1: Dangote cement recently launch 32.5 grade cement.
update 2: Earlier in November, Dangote slashed the price of its cement to NGN 1000. I am with  a Sola Salako who  wrote below

“I hear Dangote just singlehandedly, crashed the price of cement to N1,000 from N1,700! Obviously, this is another move in the attempt to stifle competition coming on the heels of getting SON to re-grade cement classification in its favour via political patronage.While this seems like a benefit for consumers in the short term, I fear it is very inimical to growth in that sector in the long term. The few competing brands may eventually close down if they don’t survive the price war after emerging bruised from the pseudo classification battle. More unemployment looms…Just as Dangote has the singular power to determine pricing downwards, who will challenge him when he pushes price to N3,000 after he has successfully run competition out of the market? This is akin to a rat nibbling away at your feet and blowing soothing air so you don’t feel it…until it hits blood!Nothing to rejoice about here if we are long term oriented people, unfortunately, Nigerians are not, so….”

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Nigeria has been plagued with a leadership that thinks her citizens are incapable of basic comprehension and thinking skills. This thought pattern has permitted various officials to make incredible claims and get away with such statements. The incredulity continues. On the13th of August, the Federal Ministry sent a circular (below) announcing the sack of resident doctors. Less than a week after, the minister of health boldly claimed that no doctors were sacked. Seriously!

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From the airports to offices, everyone is on an Ebola alert. You see airport officials and security men brandishing thermometers to take temperatures before entry. This will be normal if it was not amusing. In the past week my temperature and those of my colleagues has ranged from 25 to 34 degrees; yet we are allowed to enter the office premises. When I mentioned that the thermometers were not right, I got a "I-am-here-to-take-temperature-not-interpret"response. Colleagues returning to Nigeria also share the same experience. An interesting study will be to study the effect of lack of acuity and wit on our society. 

Deuces. 

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In Case You Missed It

Source: Anonymous art of Revolution

As it is in Nigeria so it is in the US. Nigerians have become familiar with police brutality in their approach to citizens and blatant corruption.The US also experiences similar issues though their's is shielded by policy. The New Yorker gives a descriptive account of police militarization in the US. It is a good read. Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty. Citizens cannot afford to be sentimental and apathetic where elections- legislature, local government, state, schools and police board and commissioner elections- are concerned. The people elected into these positions exert influence that affect the daily lives of ordinary citizens- ordinary citizens like you and me

In the course of the week, it was reported that about 100 boys were kidnapped in Borno on the 10th of August. 85 of these captives have been rescued by Chadian military forces. This swift rescue illustrates the importance of quick response to attacks. The 3 week denial and lapse in Nigeria's response to the abducted school girls has led to four months of these young women as hostages. The results of the examination these  kidnapped girls were writing has been released, yet they are still nowhere to be found. Sadly, the lives of these women and their families has been politicized  by the government- through the tried and failed method of throwing money at a problem- and the Northern Elders Forum, who  appear not to have the interest of their people at heart. 

Whilst Chadian troops were rescuing our people, our DSS( Department of State Security) joined Nigeria's political parties in the game of mudslinging. The DSS spokeswoman without any evidence accused an unnamed political party of offering security agents 14 million Naira ($87,500) and coyly thanked God that APC won. Political parties may get away with smear campaigns against each other. Civil servants and government institutions should not. That Nigeria's DSS is politically vocal is a unfamiliar experience that should not become a norm because agencies like the DSS should be seen not heard.

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Garden city, Eleka and other stories

I eagerly anticipated my trip to Port Harcourt. I was prepared to be surprised by the Garden City but  was disappointed. For a city that is deemed a "major city" like Lagos and Abuja, I was reminded of Ibadan and Abeokuta as we drove into the city.
Despite the disappointment, Port Harcourt provided hilarity. It typified the religiosity and over-familiarity with God Nigerians possess. The day ended with an encounter with Port Harcourt police. One can conclude that from West to South South, Nigeria's police force have similar thinking patterns.

War of Billboards.
I took no notice of the large bill boards that dotted the city. One read: "God ordained leadership is better than  imposed leadership, let's pray for it". I did not think much of it till I saw:"A greedy shepherd sacrifices her sheeps; a good shepherd protects her sheeps. Rivers State is not a sacrificial lamb". I realized it was a battle of billboards when I spotted: "Oh Lord deliver! set free! and liberate Rivers State". I visited different areas of the city and these billboards were everywhere.
Rather than promote propaganda through expensive billboards, interest groups in the state should use  the money on the citizens they intend to persuade. 

Eleka Police Station
As I toured Port Harcourt, we -I was with a friend- were stopped by policemen and the following conversation (paraphrased) ensued:

Police Officer:  You did not stop when we asked you to stop

Friend:   I did not see your hand signal. This truck was in front of me and I stopped when I saw you

PO (entering car): Please move forward and park here. 

Another police officer entered the car and we began an exchange that lasted about 30 minutes on how friend did not stop for a manual hand signal.Police officer demanded for driver's license and he was given. Friend refused to play ball and  Police officer II said we should go to the station. 

Me: Are we going to a proper station?

PO II: Yes, is there a fake station? 

Me: well. 

We drove for 20 minutes in the traffic (whilst in traffic, another uniformed police officer enters the car) back to the point we were arrested. The uniformed police officer (UPO) asked friend to park. Friend demanded to know why as we were to go to the station. UPO said he wanted to tell his colleague he was off to the station. We said no, he should call the colleague. Friend mentioned and insisted that no other officer is allowed to come into the vehicle. UPO flared up and said we had no right to command him. PO II continued on how we are obdurate. He  got off the  car and left UPO. About 2 minutes later, we were told to go. Friend made a U-turn and before UPO disembarked his female superior called

Madam PO: "anything"?

UPO: Nothing ooo, dey be Oyika, just dey speak grammar

Madam PO: Ok. 

My thoughts: I have had a number of experiences with uniformed men and have learned:

1)  Always carry valid and complete car documents and driver's license 

2) Never be in a hurry to resolve an issue, they prey on your impatience and you continue the cycle of corruption by giving a bribe just to leave the scene. If you have contravened the law, be ready to bear the consequences. 

3) Police officers, LASTMA etc are not allowed to enter your vehicle, if they are making an arrest, they should follow you in their own vehicle. If they have to enter your vehicle, let them know they are breaking a law

4) Be civil, polite and clear(clear that you are willing to follow the issue to it's conclusion) in your communication. It's easy for the issue to go from "not taking a right turn" to "insulting a police officer"

5) If you want to record the incident, do it discreetly- in the books of Nigeria's security and transport authorities, transparency whilst they carryout their duties is a crime. 

On Ekiti and Osun State  Elections
In June, All Progressives Congress (APC) lost to People Democratic Party (PDP) in Ekiti's governorship election. APC leveled with PDP in Osun State yesterday. I am of the opinion that the elections did not represent an acceptance of either party but an acceptance of the candidates. Populist politicians are accepted by the people even if they act against the interests of the people as seen in Ekiti State where the governor-elect's promise is to empower citizens by giving out contracts. Thus, for politicians who mean well, they have to learn to connect and understand the people they want to lead. 
Also, popular governors like the governors of Osun and Ondo States should begin to introduce and groom those they wish to succeed them. Otherwise, their opponents in the 2013 and 2014 elections- should they recontest- will have a smooth sail into government house. 

Deuces  

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On my radar: Africa50

A recurring theme at African Development's Bank annual meeting is that after insecurity, the continent's infrastructure deficit is responsible for the difference between her positive growth rate on paper and the realities of her people.Africa is growing yet that growth is not meaningful for her people due to poor and unavailable infrastructure. For instance, high prices of food items is associated with high transport costs occasioned bad road conditions. 

Africa Progress Panel Report 2013 notes that "Like financial systems, infrastructure occupies a pivotal position in social and economic life. Companies use energy to produce the goods and services on which employment depends. Transport systems link people and markets. Social infrastructure – such as water and sanitation – enables people to avoid health risks. But Africa’s poor infrastructure acts as a bottleneck constraining growth, driving up the costs of producing and marketing goods. The costs are spread across society, but the poor, smallholder farmers, and small and medium-sized enterprises bear the brunt." 

To become infrastructure-compliant, the continent needs about $100 million annually to fund the provision of basic amenities. Of that amount, $50million is provided by governments and development finance institutions (DFIs) and $50 million is unfunded. That amount remains unfunded because African countries do not have financial means to provide it. On this account, the African Development Bank has come up with a financing medium labelled Africa50 to provide funding.

What is it?

According to Donald Kaberuka,AfDB's president, Africa50(which has been approved by governments and the AU and launched in partnership with the Made in Africa foundation in 2013) is about " transformational, commercially viable projects of regional significance. It is about using Africa's savings to leverage the private sector".It is a financial pool of resources from the reserves of central banks across the region, the AfDB, private African investors that will provide private financing for projects to accelerate the speed of  infrastructure delivery across the continent with the aim of fast tracking growth. It promises about 10/100 rate of return. It seeks investors such as SWFs, pension funds and other interested parties to invest in Africa rather than Euro and US bonds 

Why is it different from it's parent DFI? 

Infrastructure projects are perceived as risky thus AAA organizations like AfDB shy away from investing in such projects. 

Why Africa50?

- A number of projects are not bankable that is, they are not presented in a manner that  will attract investors to the project. Thus, while they may look good on paper, they do not become reality. Africa50 will help translate projects into feasible  projects and de-risk (i.e provide initial financing) for a project to make it appealing to other investors. Project preparation which is vital to implementing any plan is also lacking. Africa50 through AfDB will close that gap by providing expertise. AfDB will act as the bridge between investors and the government 

- It will help reduce the perceived riskiness of investing in Africa. When investors begin to see returns, the fear of investing in the continent will be reduced. 

- It will make it easier to demand for reforms: Aids/loans provided by DFIs usually come with some reform riders which may or may not be acceptable by the recipient country. in the case of investments, it is easier to tie reforms with investment and this results in a win-win situation. 

What is the Business model?

There are no specifics yet on the business model and how it would run. However, investments will be on a first come first serve basis in terms of project readiness and not by the equity provided by countries.

Is it too good to be true?

Though the instrument has been hailed as an innovative and creative answer to the Continent's lack of amenities, how to balance profitability for investors without impacting the people it seeks to help remain unclear. For instance,if investors provide equity for a regional road project, how will the investment be recouped without pricing out lower-income citizens via tolls? Would a government that accesses the loan also subsidize usage for her citizens? Equality issues such as this have to be addressed to ensure that the poor  that are being targeted are not further mired into poverty.What  measures will be put in place to ensure that governments are not at the losing end of whatever agreements are reached?

What does this mean for me?  

Someone once noted that three factors are required to drive the change needed in Africa. They are: capital and financial resources, human capital and  insights. The last two- human capital and insights- depend on each individual. There are entrepreneurial spirits amongst us. We should hone in our skills and develop them. Who knows, they may be useful for the next big project

More readings:

An introduction to Africa50

Africa50: fixing an infrastructure crisis

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Il était une fois

This video clip of Alhaji Abubakar Tafawa Balewa's trip to the United States in 1961 shows the promise and hope Nigeria once had as a nation. I am unsure any other Nigerian ruler has been a recipient of the treatment the Prime Minister received.
It is unimaginable that Americans will line up the streets to welcome a foreign ruler or that the Congress will warmly welcome an address by a foreigner in its chambers. It is even more poignant and astonishing that the Prime Minister enjoyed this hospitality in a period where Black Americans were denied their civil rights.
I'd let the  clip tell its story...

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Bits and bobs

Just before I sign out on probable links between the insurgents in Kenya and Nigeria, this article from Time  magazine tells how potential native terrorists are on the radar of their nipping future threats.  The alleged mastermind of the Nyanya bomb blast had been identified as as a potential terrorist. He was arrested in 2011 on terrorism charges but was released and Nyanya happened. Similarly, Asari Dokubo, leader of the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force,was trained under Muammar Ghaddafi to sponsor conflict in Nigeria. Ghadaffi's student in the 1990s became Nigeria's problem in the 2000s. Is someone keeping track of potential security threats? 

On another note, the ongoing talkshop has recommended rotational distribution of electoral positions from the Federal to local government levels. I had my 1st experience with federal character (what the principle of rotation connotes) in primary 6. I scored 529/600 in the Federal Common Entrance examination yet didnot get into the  unity school of my choice because as a someone from the South West my scores were low whilst my mates with lower scores from other geopolitical zones were able to get in to promote education. Even now, I know people who qualify for positions in public institutions who do not get those jobs because they are not from area the position has been allocated to. I recall the experience of someone who was told something along the lines of: if you had applied last year, you would have gotten the job, it was allocated to your LGA
That we are still in the phase of promoting federal character shows that tribalism and ethnicity will continue to be promoted over merit and competency and we may never truly become unified. People should compete for positions not because of where they come from but what they can do. Federal character has gave us presidents Obasanjo, Yar'Adua and Jonathan. Where did that get us? For progress sake we need move to merit and competency. Federal character looks good in principle but is bad in practice because it not rectifying a past wrong but entrenching entitlement and incompetency . 

The talkshop also recommended the creation of an additional 19 States to the present 36 States. Considering that most states are civil service states without any tangible form of internally generated revenue are additional states the answer to agitations for recognition and independence?

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Transforming Makoko

Makoko. Credit: Daily mail

Lagos aims to be a mega city.  In terms of population, it is already one but it is not inclusive. An inclusive city is defined as “one that values all people and their needs equally. It is one in which all residents—including the most marginalized of poor workers—have a representative voice in governance, planning, and budgeting processes, and have access to sustainable livelihoods, legal housing and affordable basic services such as water/sanitation and an electricity supply.”  In addition to being non-inclusive, research estimates that 70% of Lagos residents  live in slums i.e dwellings deplorable and unfit for humans. 

To address the "problems of slums", the state government embarked on slum demolition projects especially in  Makoko (a floating slum near Ebutte- Meta, population:100,000) in 2012. Rather than resolve the issue, the demolition worsened housing problems for residents as some converted their canoes to houses whilst others live under the bridges or school buildings.

An alternative to slum demolition is to reconstruct the slum as a floating community. The notion of floating homes is not new- it has been around for years and became popular after WW1 as an alternate source of housing due its affordability. It  exists in Asia, USA and Netherlands. A floating home is  a structure similar to land houses permanently attached to a dock. Houses can be built such that it rises under flood situations while it remains normal during non-flood times. To ensure that the homes are sturdy and resilient, researchers have advised that the foundation of  these  houses are made of water tight concrete and stone with a column-and-sleeve- unit for restraint. Well built floating homes survive floods.  For instance, a community built on river Maas in Netherlands in 2005 survived a flooding  in 2011. 

Concerns around amenities are addressed because sewage facilities  and utilities can be provided onshore. 

Floating home kitchen. Credit:http://www.nachi.org/inspecting-floating-homes.htm

The benefits of transforming the slum into a floating community include:

• Its affordability: After WW1 and till date, floating homes are popular in the United States. 
• The human dignity of residents will be restored: they will have access to social amenities and no longer have to bath or defecate in public.
• For the aesthics-driven government, a row of well built houses like below on the Atlantic speaks to its “progressiveness” and “meganess

Can Lagos State think of transforming Makoko to this?

Credit: designsigh.com

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